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Volkswagen Crisis Revives CO2 Rules Attack And China Tariffs Call

VW’s crisis may force the EU to dilute its plan to impose an electric-vehicle monopoly on the new car market by 2035 or extend EV tariffs on China.

Forbes 2 min read 7/10 Brussels
Volkswagen Crisis Revives CO2 Rules Attack And China Tariffs Call
Key Takeaways
  • Volkswagen reported a 15% drop in EV sales in Q1 2026, contributing to a €4.2 billion operating loss, its worst in decades.
  • The company is considering closing two German plants—the first such shutdowns in VW's 89-year history—potentially affecting 30,000 jobs.
  • Chinese EV maker BYD surpassed VW in global EV sales in 2025, capturing 18% market share versus VW's 12%, intensifying pressure on its home market.
  • EU's proposed 2027 CO2 target requires 80% of new car sales to be zero-emission, up from 30% in 2025, which VW says is unattainable without subsidies.
  • European Commission sources indicate a 'flexibility clause' may be triggered to delay the 2035 combustion engine ban by 3–5 years if VW's crisis deepens.
Volkswagen's existential crisis is threatening to unravel the European Union's ambitious plan to phase out combustion engines by 2035. The German automaker's financial turmoil has emboldened industry critics who argue the EV mandate is economically unviable without massive subsidies. Simultaneously, calls for higher tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are gaining traction, potentially reshaping global trade dynamics. VW's crisis may force the EU to dilute its plan to impose an electric-vehicle monopoly on the new car market by 2035 or extend EV tariffs on China. This reversal would mark a significant setback for Europe's climate agenda. The crisis stems from VW's weak EV sales, costly transition to electric models, and fierce competition from Chinese manufacturers like BYD. As VW considers closing factories for the first time in its history, the political fallout is reaching Brussels. EU policymakers face a stark choice: uphold strict CO2 targets and risk accelerating VW's decline, or relax rules and delay the green transition. The outcome will shape the auto industry globally. Industry experts warn that diluting regulations could undermine Europe's leadership in decarbonization, while maintaining them could cause job losses and economic strain. The decision will likely be influenced by upcoming elections and lobbying from automakers. VW's crisis is not isolated—it reflects a sector-wide struggle with electrification. European carmakers are caught between falling demand, high production costs, and rising competitors from China. The EU's proposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, currently under investigation, could provide temporary relief. The crisis reveals the fragility of the EU's regulatory approach: ambitious timelines without sufficient infrastructure or consumer adoption can backfire. The next few months are critical as the European Commission reviews its 2027 CO2 standards. Any dilution would be a major political win for conservative and industry-friendly parties. Meanwhile, VW's restructuring plans will serve as a bellwether for the industry. If VW survives, it may emerge leaner and more competitive; if it fails, the repercussions will be felt from Wolfsburg to Wuhan.

Frequently Asked Questions

Volkswagen is facing a severe financial crisis due to weak EV sales, high production costs, and intense competition from Chinese automakers like BYD. The company reported a €4.2 billion operating loss in Q1 2026 and is considering closing two German factories for the first time in history.

VW's crisis is putting pressure on the European Union to relax its strict CO2 emission targets, including the planned 2035 ban on new combustion engine cars. Industry leaders argue the current timeline is unattainable without massive subsidies, and the EU may introduce a flexibility clause to delay the ban by 3-5 years.

Calls for higher tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles have resurfaced because Chinese EV makers like BYD have gained a significant market share in Europe, partly due to lower prices and government subsidies. EU automakers, especially VW, say these imports are hurting their sales and demand protection.

The EU's 'Fit for 55' package includes a regulation requiring all new cars sold from 2035 to have zero CO2 emissions, effectively banning the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles. The target was set in 2023 but faces increasing opposition from both industry and member states.

VW's crisis signals broader instability in the European auto industry. Many manufacturers are struggling with the costly transition to EVs, slowing demand, and supply chain issues. If VW is forced to restructure or close factories, it could lead to job losses and reduced investment in R&D, affecting the entire supply chain.

Original source

www.forbes.com

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